Short term supply and demand mismatch prices still have upward space

This week (July 26 ~ July 30, the same below) the market showed a steady upward trend. After the restraint and fear of heights of various varieties last week, the volume of transactions this week has increased, and the price rise has increased. Among them, the mainstream product praseodymium and neodymium kept rising after the medium and high price fluctuated. After maintaining stability, the transaction price of dysprosium products was also high one after another with the rise of the inquiry price. The price of terbium products sang all the way under the condition of continuous shortage of supply. The price of gadolinium holmium products was also bullish due to the small supply of separation plants. Mainstream large manufacturers have a firm attitude towards supporting prices. Downstream orders increased in August, and the industry continues to be optimistic about the recent trend.

Following the weak performance of praseodymium and neodymium last week, the fear of heights continued to grow at the beginning of this week. After some traders and small factories made concessions and shipped goods, market confidence was re established with the inquiry of metal factories. Under the factors of ore tightening and environmental protection supervision, traders and separation plants became more reluctant to sell, and even metal factories sold selectively in small quantities in the process of quotation and shipment, This has led to more tension in the already tight market and further increased the demand for downstream goods preparation. Over the weekend, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 620000 yuan / ton ~ 630000 yuan / ton.

For the future market of praseodymium and neodymium, the attitude of the industry is also slightly differentiated. Some downstream believe that the degree of shortage of goods may be restored in September. After all, from the end of environmental protection in Sichuan and Jiangxi to the production volume, praseodymium and neodymium can be recovered and a small amount of goods can be prepared; Some downstream believe that the growth rate of demand may be faster than that of supply. The elimination of IE2 low-grade motors implemented since June 1 will force the increase of magnetic material consumption. In addition to the small increase of China's mining quota, it is difficult to increase the imported ore, and the short-term gap will always exist. These enterprises are active and bold in replenishing at present.

For the market of dysprosium and terbium, the price of dysprosium and terbium products has been somewhat lower than the previous quotations, but the supply and demand base for supporting the rise is still there. The release of Burma mines, the return of workers and the closing of customs are all good. The release of these information, together with the action of high rare earth group receiving high yield, is no doubt pushing up the price of heavy rare earth. In the middle and late of this week, the trend of double high quotation and transaction of dysprosium products and terbium products may continue until next week. Metal terbium is quoted at 10.5 million yuan / ton over the weekend, but downstream enterprises still have some resistance to too fast and too high prices, and secondary utilization may occur in target enterprises.

As of July 30, the quotations of some rare earth metal products in the domestic market are: the market quotation of metal praseodymium and neodymium (ex factory tax included, cash exchange) is 76 yuan / ton ~ 780000 yuan / ton; The market quotation of neodymium (ex factory tax included, cash exchange) is 74 yuan / ton ~ 750000 yuan / ton; Dysprosium iron market quotation (ex factory tax included, cash exchange) is 2.67 million yuan / ton ~ 2.68 million yuan / ton;

In the short term, the basis for supporting the price rise is still. Some traders are afraid of high shipments in the early stage, which leads to a price correction, but it is not obvious. The mainstream large manufacturers have always maintained a cautious and optimistic attitude in price fluctuations. The shortage of praseodymium neodymium oxide is inevitable, and there is a great possibility of price rise. At present, both light and heavy rare earths are at a high level in the year, and there are low reservoirs in the upstream, middle and downstream, which can not be alleviated in the short term. With the large demand, the trend of the overall rare earth price will continue to develop upward. However, it is also necessary to be vigilant about the risk adjustment in the process of price blindly rising. After all, the emotions of rising, fearing high, downstream resistance and buying rising will always run through, Cause fluctuations in prices.