May 23-27 Rare Earth Review: supply and demand are both weak and rare earth prices are spiraling upward

This week (5.23-5.27, the same below), although the main melody of the rare earth market is weak, its performance is still strong. Compared with last week, the price has rebounded slightly. Based on the mitigation of the epidemic in Shanghai and the positive expectations of the policy, under the dual support of high cost, the prices of mainstream rare earth products are easy to rise but difficult to fall.

However, from the perspective of the overall demand environment, "the current downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, and many market players are very difficult to operate." this is a summary of the national standing committee, which shows that the current demand environment has not yet recovered, and the spread of the epidemic, geopolitical tension, and terminal exports have all been impacted.

At the same time, the upside down of the upper and middle reaches of domestic rare earths has been going on for some time, and several times this week, the waste materials have been swaying from side to side in the "less than expected" inquiry and transaction; Under the pressure of cost, the production of separation plants is generally reduced, the new single increment of metal plants is generally limited, and the downstream magnetic materials are also facing severe operating pressure. Orders and cash flow have almost become a common problem in the industry.

Different from the previous speculation, at present, the industry generally has a more rational prediction of the supply and demand environment, and the continuous upward and downward adjustment are staggered, which makes the upward momentum more solid than before. Of course, in the small demand inquiry of the market this week, the metal transaction price has substantially increased, but the trading downturn continues, and some industries have certain expectations for June.

Praseodymium and neodymium products rose sharply at the opening of this week. At the beginning of the week, the price reached 950000 yuan / ton. In the middle of the week, it continued to fluctuate, with a slight correction. At the weekend, the price was slightly stable under the condition that the low price narrowed and it became more difficult to inquire about the low price; Although the substantial rise of praseodymium and neodymium products was blocked, the weak callback cycle was shortened compared with last week, and the range was slightly moderate.

For heavy rare earth products, this week, in various news such as the "groundbreaking" sentiment of Gannan mine and China Myanmar relations, there were relatively active enquiries, tightening of low prices and a slight rebound in prices, which were temporarily stable.

The two national conferences on stabilizing the economy this week are promoting the resumption of work, stabilizing the industrial chain and stabilizing the supply chain. Among them, infrastructure, real estate and automobiles are still the main focus in stabilizing growth, especially in the phased reduction of some passenger vehicle purchase tax by 60billion yuan, which will give policy and financial preference from top to bottom. In the medium and long term, the demand for rare earth will gradually improve. In the short term, The supply-demand relationship of the buying and selling dilemma will continue for some time. Especially in recent years, the market probability is still dominated by just needed procurement.

Since the middle of May, the overall demand has been slowly recovering. The trend of praseodymium and neodymium products has risen in a narrow range in terms of amplitude and speed. Heavy rare earth gadolinium holmium and other products have a high opening situation under the influence of praseodymium and neodymium. Dysprosium and terbium have been able to slide steadily because large manufacturers have always maintained a high stable quotation. From the perspective of market expectations, the short-term stability is expected to continue.